Introduction: Saudi Crown Prince Fears Assassination
Many have recorded Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as the man of the moment in effecting and restructuring the geopolitics of the Middle East. It’s a herculean task for any one man to gird Saudi Arabia’s domestic economy for economic reforms aimed at ending oil dependency, even as he tectonically shifts the kingdom’s ties with the Western world by bolting close relations. These cover normalization of Saudi relations with Israel, a general reach-out effort to have the kingdom seem more receptive to Westerners. But MBS has some fears of the possibility of assassination attempts that might come from this. The prognosticated danger seems to involve most nightmarish fears related to autopsic politics in the Middle East, dwelling upon the uncompromised stance of Saudi Arabia in the Israeli issue as a regional enemy of Iran.
The normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
In fact, the very concept of Saudi normalization of ties with Israel is enormous. In the past, Saudi Arabia has emerged as one of the finest crusaders of the Palestinian cause. Which has stood against Israel. Any forward movement in normalization will indeed mark a sea change in the political scenario. For decades, Saudi Arabia stood against Israel and in favor of a united Arab front, a thaw that had started in the recent past. The other side of the coin is that a number of Gulf states, led by the UAE and Bahrain, had already done so under the aegis of the US’s Abraham Accords. Viewed against such a backdrop, anything that Saudi Arabia is doing in terms of normalization might be said to be anything but the next logical step in the process. When compared to the moves of these neighboring middle powers, this was clearly a far bigger development. A potential normalization agreement would leave Iran further isolated, while putting Saudi Arabia at the center of a new political order for the Middle East. But it is this very centrality around which MBS has also been expressing his apprehensions about the potential fallout.
Fears of Assassination: Mohammed bin Salman
The crown prince has shared with the Americans his fears about the risks he is running in supporting normalization. His fears are not entirely without foundation. The overall frequency of political assassinations in the Middle East is pretty high, and through unpopular policies, leaders who rule can easily become sitting ducks. Here, the predominant fear for Crown Prince MBS would be that his overtures towards Israel might provoke hostility from various players deeply invested in the status quo. Most obviously, MBS will then face a threat zone emanating from Iran the principal regional rival opposed to any kind of normalization with Israel. For this will be an immense defeat for Tehran not just in the question of regional influence, but perhaps more importantly, in its capacity to build some kind of unified Muslim stance based on anti-Israel animus. Going back almost five decades, Iran has kept a profitable history of being a paymaster for local proxy forces from Hezbollah in Lebanon to a range of Iraqi, Syrian, and Yemeni irregulars. These, in all likelihood, are going to take their revenge against the Saudi leadership because of the normalization of the kingdom.Of course, there are also internal matters for MBS to worry about. While the crown prince consolidated power and imposed a clampdown on dissent, there still remain internal elements of Saudi society and the royal family that may oppose enjoining a peace deal with Israel. Violent emergence of internal resistance against this cannot be precluded.
The Iranian Angle: Increased Tensions
How the Saudi-Israel normalization is relevant is because it takes place within regional geopolitical confrontations: Saudi Arabia is an ally to Washington, Iran’s age-old regional rival, and per-se they have backed rival sides of the fence from Yemen into Syria for the last several decades. A Saudi-Israeli normalization will deal a serious blow to these efforts of Iran to influence the region. And, for so long, Tehran has tried to portray itself as a leader of what it calls a “resistance axis”: swaths of militant groups in the region that are opposed to Israel’s existence. Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel deflates that axis. And it further isolates Iran. It can be the kind of isolation that provokes the behavior of a cornered animal. He is, of course, not without some apprehensions on the possibility of assassination since he is fully aware of the fact that Iran or for that matter some other proxy could strike him to derail the normalization process. After all, Tehran has already honed its skills in assassination as a state craft, against those people whom it considers as threats to its interests.
US Involvement: Mediation and Security Considerations
The US has been largely involved when bringing Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalization. Successive US administrations have looked at the process as the avenue to Middle East stability, which includes standing up to Iran’s meddling. The issue is also hot on Washington, bearing in mind that the country would like to be on good terms with the friends in the area. Washington articulates itself, having rolled up its almost strategic attention to Asia. Issue of the report to MBS by US officials, according to reports, was because MBS “also understood the risks.” The interest in the normalizer, the interest in the Saudi crown prince, also held for Washington. It placed importance not just on interest for national legacy projects but on the importance as a strategic partner of Saudi Arabia for the region. It holds a longstanding agreement on security by Washington to Riyadh, binding security cooperation in a condition of threat to MBS. The United States, facing those risks, must take them as well: it will strengthen anti-American feuds in the region and open broader opposition to normalization lit by a decision to openly provide security to MBS. It faces serious predicaments of having to convey the allegiance owed to its security partner Saudi Arabia, while being honest about its broader political and policy imperatives in the region.
The Wider Implications for the Middle East
MBS’s fear of assassination speaks to high stakes within the normalization process of Saudi Arabia with Israel. Should he outflank these challenges successfully, the improvement in Middle Eastern politics could be massive. This normalization is likely to up the level of economic cooperation between Saudis and Israel; this surely will go on to change the economy of this region. It would also weaken the grip of militant groups in their influence and realignment of alliances. But the stakes are indeed high. A successful attack against the life of MBS will destabilize the Saudi Arabian politics and, in effect, that of the Middle East, due to the potential consequences. This will therefore pour more energy into the antinormalization group and will cause violence in the entire Middle East. There will be violence in the whole of the Middle East. Countries more amenable to the peace deal with Israel will likely take tougher lines in trying to extend similar deals to both Israel and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, the tougher lines will likely further marginalize nations like Lebanon and Syria that are still hostile to Israel.
Conclusion: A Dangerous Headway
Apparently, underlining the challenges this relatively young leader will have to face are the fears of assassination by detractors, both hidden and apparent, in his act of reshuffling the region, cementing Saudi Arabia at the driving seat of the region’s top leadership position, and doing this reshuffling cleanly. Time will have come for him to correctly tread the minefield of domestic, regional, and international pressure as he works out a process for normalizing relations with Israel amidst an environment that is sure to be opposed by Iran, with potential internal dissension adding real threats to MBS’s safety. The fact is, the United States, along with other key players involved in the process, must medi- ate in the most sober manner in order not to put oil on the fire of the Middle East. In the end, MBS’s political mission of normalizing the region through normalization and economic peace might go down as one of the most irretrievable taken in the cause of shaping a Middle East either in stability or with relatively lasting conflict. It is a development parallel to those that mirror the fears of the crown prince’s assassination an assassination that might rudely upset the volatile and delicate balance of the process when Saudi Arabia edges closer to a new era in relations with Israel.
Leave a Reply